NAPERVILLE — Speculators have bought Chicago corn in 11 of the final 13 weeks after sustaining big lengthy positions for the higher a part of two years, and now their bullish bets are simply one-third as giant because the yr’s excessive.
Final week’s story was similar to the earlier week, the place corn futures rose after which fell inside the interval, however the promoting was clearly heavier on the way in which down than any shopping for on the way in which up.
Within the week ended July 19, cash managers reduce practically 26,000 CBOT corn futures and choices contracts off their web lengthy place, which fell to 125,303 contracts, the bottom since September 2020.
Friday’s knowledge from the U.S. Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee confirmed that funds’ web promoting in corn was nearly totally as a result of discount of gross longs, which has been robust within the newest 5 weeks. Most-active CBOT corn futures had risen 1.5% within the week.
Different reportable speculators’ web lengthy place in CBOT corn is the smallest since Might 2020 at 37,084 futures and choices contracts, equal to 185 million bushels. Merchants in that group expanded their small web brief place in CBOT soybeans, which they’ve held for 5 weeks now.
Most-active CBOT soybeans rose greater than 1% within the week ended July 19, although cash managers diminished their web lengthy by practically 8,000 contracts to 87,832 futures and choices contracts, the lightest since December.
Cash managers coated a small quantity of soybean shorts for a second consecutive week, although exiting longs had been the principle driver. Gross brief positions are nonetheless very modest throughout all U.S. grain and oilseed futures and are much like final yr’s slender ranges.
Normal considerations concerning the well being of the worldwide financial system and the current inflation spike have triggered traders to scale back their publicity in commodities, and costs have dropped off. For corn and soybeans, waffling U.S. climate forecasts have launched uncertainty, however outlooks late within the week elevated anticipated rain quantities within the coming days throughout a large space.
Demand worries are additionally current as key importer China has been quiet, although there have been indicators final week of renewed curiosity as Chinese language consumers reportedly secured each Australian and French wheat and a small quantity of U.S. soybeans.
Most-active corn futures on Friday traded as little as $5.61-3/4 per bushel, the contract’s lowest degree since Nov. 10, and soybeans’ backside of $12.88-1/2 was their lowest since Dec. 21. Corn and soybeans shed 5.2% and three.1%, respectively, between Wednesday and Friday.
Chicago wheat futures are greater than 40% off their all-time excessive notched in early March following Russia’s invasion of main grain exporter Ukraine. Grains had been pressured late final week amid the signing of a deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports, although the primary shipments could also be weeks away but.
Decrease open curiosity and tame buying and selling volumes in CBOT wheat haven’t not too long ago facilitated giant place shifts amongst traders, who preserve slowly drifting additional into bear territory.
As of July 19, cash managers’ web brief in CBOT wheat futures and choices stood at 6,816 contracts, barely up from the prior week. They’d held a web lengthy of the identical magnitude simply 5 weeks earlier.
Cash managers bought Kansas Metropolis wheat futures and choices for a ninth consecutive week by means of July 19, and the ensuing web lengthy of 11,868 contracts is the smallest since April 2021.
By way of July 19, cash managers’ Minneapolis wheat web lengthy place of 982 futures and choices contracts represented simply 5% of the document set on April 19. That’s funds’ least bullish spring wheat view since October 2020, which can be the final time they had been bearish.
All three wheat contracts on Friday hit their lowest ranges since February, previous to the Russian invasion. Most-active Chicago wheat tumbled 6.6% within the final three classes, ending at $7.59 per bushel on Friday. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her personal.
(Enhancing by Matthew Lewis)
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