Press play to take heed to this text

ISTANBUL — Eating places have invested in wipe-clean menus to allow them to replace their costs day by day. Taxi drivers are asking passengers to high up their fares to fulfill rising gasoline prices. A cappuccino that price 20 lira earlier this 12 months is now 30 lira. 

“It’s ridiculous,” stated Osman, who runs an area espresso store and is attempting to maintain up with Turkey’s runaway inflation — formally at a 20-year excessive of 70 % and, in response to the impartial Inflation Analysis Group, greater than double that. 

But as anxiousness programs by means of the nation and elections loom in 2023, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rhetoric has solely turn out to be more and more uncompromising, rejecting calls to vary financial coverage within the face of voters’ monetary fears. 

As a substitute, Erdoğan is wanting overseas to assist clear up his nation’s issues, partly out of financial necessity, and partly out of political expediency.

In Ukraine, Ankara has emerged as a significant navy provider to Kyiv, whereas additionally positioning itself as a diplomatic energy dealer and refusing to undertake Western sanctions in opposition to Moscow. A serious purpose: Turkey has a big monetary stake in each international locations it needs to protect.

And on the NATO summit in Madrid this week, Erdoğan made certain he was entrance and heart, threatening to dam Sweden and Finland from becoming a member of the alliance before backing down after they dedicated to serving to Turkey thwart Kurdish teams — giving him a center-stage photograph op.

Elsewhere, Erdoğan has riled up nationalist sentiment — a vote-winning technique. By portray Greece as an exterior risk to Turkey’s territory, and Kurdish separatism as an inner one, he has created a way that the nation is dealing with assaults that solely he can defend it in opposition to.

This sample of strikes displays Erdoğan’s rising leverage internationally. For geographic and geopolitical causes, Western allies want Turkey’s cooperation. Its presence within the Center East and alongside the Black Sea makes it an indispensable companion, even whether it is an unreliable one.

“For the West, Russia is the disaster, Putin is the massive risk, and impulsively that makes Erdoğan extra essential, extra acceptable, and his excesses extra tolerable,” stated Karabekir Akkoyunlu, a lecturer in politics and worldwide relations at London’s College of Oriental and African Research (SOAS). “That provides him a freer hand at residence, and offers him a way of indispensability on the world stage, and he makes use of it to the utmost.”

Electoral politics

Erdoğan is dealing with financial strife again residence at an essential second. 

Earlier than the tip of subsequent June, he should ask voters to re-elect him for a 3rd time period, whereas his get together, the populist AKP, will even be preventing to extend its share of seats in parliament after being disadvantaged of an absolute majority in 2015.

Till now, polls have shown Erdoğan struggling to draw extra votes than his rivals, who’re anticipated to unite behind one candidate. In the meantime, AKP maintains solely a slim lead over the primary opposition get together, the social-democratic CHP.

A parliamentary group assembly on the Turkish Grand Nationwide Meeting | Adem Altan/AFP by way of Getty Pictures

“Regardless of the very fact the federal government controls a lot of the media and the judiciary, that is nonetheless an election the place they will’t take victory as a right,” Akkoyunlu stated. 

And a teetering financial system is threatening to make Erdoğan’s place extra precarious.

Simply alongside the Bosporus straits, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the Black Sea right into a struggle zone, threatening meals imports and crashing the worldwide vitality markets. Sluggish restoration from the COVID-19 pandemic and a significant funds deficit has added to the issue, sending inflation and the price of dwelling skyrocketing.

As a substitute of launching a allure offensive, nevertheless, Erdoğan has stood by his long-standing financial coverage. Whereas elevating rates of interest is essentially the most orthodox strategy to coping with inflation, the Turkish chief has flatly refused, arguing curiosity is opposite to Islamic rules.

“Sadly, in some elements of our nation, a state of dissatisfaction and pessimism has taken its toll,” the president said final month. “To begin with, we should always be pleased about what we’ve.”

World issues 

Whereas Turkey’s chief is being accused of inaction at residence, he takes a increasingly assertive stance overseas, from Japanese Europe to Central Asia.

Turkey’s superior Bayraktar TB-2 assault drones have been credited with serving to Ukraine destroy huge columns of Russian {hardware} and earned plaudits from Western allies.  

But Ankara has saved a foot in each camps. 

Turkey has hosted talks between the warring international locations over ending Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, which has left a lot of the world’s grain languishing in warehouses. It has even supplied to dealer broader peace talks. However it has additionally saved open financial pathways for Russia, even on the expense of angering Ukraine, which accused Ankara of shopping for up grain Moscow stole from Ukraine. 

“On the one hand, Turkey acts as a mediator and helps Ukraine in essential methods,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy complained final month. “However then again, we see them on the identical time opening up routes for Russian vacationers.”  

Turkey has pursued a equally complicated technique in different regional conflicts. The nation not too long ago doubled down on its help for Libya’s embattled authorities — pitting itself in opposition to Russia, which has backed an insurgency attempting to displace the federal government. And it’s supporting an in depth ally, Azerbaijan, in an ongoing battle with Armenia, a Russian companion, over the breakaway area of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Some folks will at all times argue that Turkey is being extra lively overseas to distract from points at residence,” stated Matthias Finger, an economist at Istanbul Technical College. “However actually, its international coverage priorities relate to real points for the nation’s growth — issues like meals, trade and vitality.”

With Russia and Ukraine, the financial pursuits are evident — each international locations are high buying and selling companions for Turkey. Grain and vegetable oil come from Ukraine. Oil and gasoline come from Russia. Vacationers come from each. Analysts estimate a fall in guests from Russia and Ukraine may in the end price Turkey $3-4 billion in misplaced revenues.

Turkey “is without doubt one of the most affected by the shock in Europe,” stated Alper Üçok, a consultant of Turkey’s TÜSİAD trade group.

Enjoying politics

A few of Turkey’s different international conflicts seem to have extra to do with politics than economics. 

Erdoğan has warned a brand new navy operation in opposition to Kurdish forces in northern Syria may start at any second. 

The offensive would play a twin function. 

Ankara has lengthy focused pro-Kurdish independence teams on either side of the border. It accuses the YPG militia, which controls a lot of Syrian Kurdistan, of getting shut hyperlinks to bombings inside Turkey. An offensive in opposition to its forces could be each common at residence and crush the concept of a breakaway Kurdish state.

It will additionally assist pave the way for Ankara to construct nearly 1 / 4 of 1,000,000 properties within the area for Syrian Arabs who’ve been displaced by the preventing. With financial pressures squeezing Turkish residents, anti-immigrant sentiment is rising to the purpose the place migrant rights staff have warned of a possible “pogrom” in opposition to refugees. 

Chief of not too long ago fashioned Turkish nationalist Victory Celebration Ümit Özdağ | Adem Altan/AFP by way of Getty Pictures

Forward of the presidential election, considered one of Erdoğan’s fiercest critics has threatened to outflank him on the precise. The Victory Celebration’s Ümit Özdağ, who has campaigned on a platform of sending Syrians again, now has extra followers on Twitter than the president. And whereas his single-issue platform could not in the end ship a landslide on the poll field, it’s shifting the dialog amongst voters.

Likewise, the long-standing dispute between Turkey and Greece over the Aegean Sea hit a fever pitch this month, with Erdoğan appearing to threaten navy motion and accusing Athens of deploying arms to islands within the disputed waters.

Akkoyunlu, the SOAS lecturer, argues the row is a part of an effort to shore up the president’s help. 

“Each election since 2014 has taken place in an setting of existential disaster — a story that claims ‘dominate or die,’ and that has turn out to be increasingly intense every time folks exit to vote,” he stated. 

“Trying on the financial state of affairs and the short-term outlook of the struggle in Ukraine, there’s no mild on the finish of the tunnel. The insurance policies they’re pursuing imply inflation will proceed to rise, life goes to get costlier and extra determined for the common Turkish citizen,” he predicted. 

“It’s likelier than ever that the citizens will wish to punish Erdoğan,” he added, “and among the crises we’re seeing now to strain the citizens are probably being artificially intensified.”

In the interim although, voters should resolve if Erdoğan’s insurance policies are the reply to an more and more unsure world, or the reason for it.

This text is a part of POLITICO Professional

The one-stop-shop answer for coverage professionals fusing the depth of POLITICO journalism with the facility of expertise


Unique, breaking scoops and insights


Custom-made coverage intelligence platform


A high-level public affairs community